February 24, 2026:
Four years of war in Ukraine are causing growing problems for Russian civilians back home. This was particularly evident in late 2025 when the annual cold weather season arrived. Some 60 percent of Russia is subarctic where the winters are particularly harsh and long. Not only that, but in these areas the surface areas contain permafrost, permanently frozen beneath the soil that is not frozen most of the year. Most Russians who live in these areas depend on the government to keep the houses heated, the lights on, the roads usable and the trains running during winter. Since late 2025 that has not been happening in many parts of Russia.
With the Ukraine War taking half the government budget, the government had to reduce what was usually spent on many items essential for the population. This became evident when the cold weather arrived and the heat for government and private buildings did not. Even many hospitals were affected and had to scrounge up resources to keep patients and medical staff from freezing to death. The roads and rail lines were in bad shape because of deferred maintenance. That meant supplies of fuel arrived late, if at all. Local officials were complaining about this before winter arrived and the central government said measures have been taken to assure deliveries. That turned out to be overly optimistic at best. There were efforts to get the permafrost regions ready, but the money, resources and reliable transportation were not available, sometimes due to government corruption.
Most Russians supported Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine. Not just because Putin made it a criminal offense to openly criticize the war, but because most Russians agreed that Ukraine belonged to Russia and had a right to take it back. Months of cold weather without enough heat and dilapidated housing and infrastructure has been changing minds about the war. A harsh Russian winter may win the war for Ukraine.
Over half a million wounded, and often disabled, Russian men have returned from the war and are talking about their experiences. It is obvious that Russia is not winning and the Ukrainians are better off, despite recent Russian efforts to destroy Ukrainian power plants and fuel supplies. The Ukrainians are not subject to economic sanctions and can quickly get resupplied by NATO countries. The lights and heat stay on in Ukraine while they do not in Russia. Ukrainian military efforts have concentrated on Russian fuel infrastructure over the last two years, bombing fuel storage sites, refineries and factories producing weapons and munitions.
Putin has tried to block the bad news from spreading by censoring communications or even shutting down or restricting the internet. This slows down but does not stop the spread of bad news. This kind of suffering precipitated previous Russian revolutions and seems poised to do it again.