by
Austin BayMay 28, 2025
What does Russian dictator Vladimir Putin value?
My question's immediate frame of reference: Donald Trump says Ukraine war-waging, ceasefire-dawdling Putin is insane. Moreover, if Putin evades sincere peace negotiations, the Kremlin leader confronts "really bad things" and, ultimately, is "playing with fire."
"Really bad things" is a Trumpism for ... Well, it means devastating economic and political sanctions against any thug adversary. In the case of Iran, and I suspect North Korea — it means overwhelming conventional air and missile strikes to destroy nuclear weapons capabilities.
Reality Check: Vlad's Russia has thousands of nuclear weapons.
As I finish this column, Putin lackey and former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev tells the world, "I know of only a really bad thing (Trump confronts) ... WWIII."
Leverage: "Action of a lever." The relevant Ukraine strategic definition: Positional advantage creating the power to act and achieve desired results.
Donald "Art of the Deal" Trump understands leverage — how to create advantage (real or perceived) and how to use it. Trump will, on occasion, bend to adversarial pressure (see Bond Markets) — until he gets a chance to apply an advantageous counter-vise.
Back to the lead question. What does nuclear-armed Vlad value?
Understanding value in a straight-up deal creates cooperation or a walk-off no deal.
War is not a straight-up deal.
I'm certain President Trump has asked the Vlad Value question. Quizzed historians, CIA spies. Queried diplomats, Russian expats. Dealing Don may have even asked Vlad.
Warning to Don: KGB colonels are schooled liars and manipulators. And when it comes to killing human beings, cold KGB bastards have no souls.
Mr. President, Vlad does not value life.
I credit Trump with pursuing vigorous and creative diplomacy crafted to stop Europe's biggest and most dangerous war since WWII. I've supported his efforts. Why? Because Trump himself, a talented and extravagant being, genuinely loves life and people. Plus, he understands nuclear weapons are annihilation of humanity en masse.
In an October 1999 "Meet the Press" interview with Tim Russert, he said as much. As for North Korean nukes, Trump told Russert, "I'd negotiate like crazy and I'd make sure I could that we'd try to get the best deal possible." Trump elaborated on possible deals but concluded, "If that negotiation doesn't work, then better solve the problem now than solve it later."
Hello, 2025. On March 11, Ukraine agreed to a 30-day ceasefire. The Trump administration also said Ukraine had agreed to the strategic minerals deal — a subtle U.S. security guarantee.
But since March, Bad Vlad has been playing Dealing Don. Despite Trump's efforts to kickstart peace negotiations, the slaughter continues, because of Putin. Despite gee-whiz drones, 21st-century attrition warfare bleeds like WWI and WWII stalemates and it does not stop — because of Putin.
Today — May 27 — Putin continues to dodge and snark.
Is Trump about to conclude Vlad is a hardcore KGB killer who sees Trump's Ukraine-Russia peace process as a diplomatic schtick to exploit? How does Trump, to allude to 1999, solve the problem now?
Tighter economic sanctions could well strangle Russia — in 24 months. Secondary sanctions on nations smuggling oil could accelerate the strangle.
I argue Vlad values territory. He wants four Ukrainian provinces which he claims are Russian territory — though the people living in them resist. He definitely wants the Crimean peninsula.
He really wants the RUBK — pronounced "rubik," as in the puzzle Rubik's Cube. The RUBK consists of Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan. With its demographics and natural resources, the RUBK has the geostrategic resources to secure global Great Power status.
For the sake of European and world peace, Putin must not have it.
June 6 is D-Day. Trump should tell Putin he has until June 6 to agree to a total ceasefire. Or?
A few choices. NATO has already lifted range restrictions on longer-range weapons. NATO (U.S. included) should quickly give Ukraine weapons capable of striking targets deep within Russia — targets like the Moscow-St. Petersburg rail line. And why not provide weapons capable of mining the harbors of St Petersburg, Archangel and — yes — Vladivostok?
Threaten WWIII? OK, Russia, risk the rewards of WWII, like Kaliningrad, the Russian exclave on the Baltic. Blockade, mine and surround Kaliningrad.
At least mention, in polite diplomatic conversation, the city is so damn vulnerable.