April 22, 2025: Russia is losing its war in Ukraine. The signs are already present in the lack of Russian offensive actions in the last few months. The one exception was the Russo-Korean force that was assembled to push Ukraine troops out of Kursk province. The Ukrainians invaded Russia in August of last year. Some Russians saw this as a premonition of disasters to come. Russia had not been invaded since the Germans attacked in 1941 and occupied half of European Russia. In 2024 German soldiers operated near the Russian border. As a NATO member, German forces will be a major component of the 800,000 man force NATO is purportedly assembling to defend Europe against a future Russian invasion. This is supposed to occur by the end of the decade.

Those plans may change as the world witnesses the collapse of the Russian army in the next six months. In Ukraine there are fewer and fewer Russian troops. These soldiers are sometimes changing into civilian clothes and walking away. They can’t catch a train or use an army truck because the Russian railroad system is collapsing and there are few operational Russian vehicles, especially trucks in Ukraine. Supplies aren’t getting in because most Russian trucks leaving Ukraine don’t return. There is no fuel because Ukrainian HIMARS missiles are destroying Russian supply depots. Nearly a dozen have been eliminated so far.

Russia is trying to rebuild its depleted tank forces. In 2021 Russia had 10,000 tanks but now there are only a few hundred and most of these are 1960s relics brought out of storage. Many are now immobile for lack of fuel. There is some ammunition but most crews just walked away. They know that an immobile tank is target practice for Ukrainian drones and artillery. Russia is still producing hundreds of tanks, but these are for export customers who pay cash. The Russian economy needs the money because over a decade of sanctions has wrecked the economy and the Russian people are fed up with the lack of jobs, consumer goods and basic food supplies. Government officials are concentrating on money making activities and consider the war a nuisance and lost cause. Vladimir Putin has lost the backing of the oligarchs because these powerful businessmen are losing their fortunes to inflation and western sanctions. Without western components there is not much Russian factories can produce besides basic commodities using local resources.

Having lost the war and wrecked the economy, Putin is expected to be out of a job by the end of the year. By then Russian forces will be out of Ukraine and Putin will be blamed for the Ukraine crisis that began in 2014 with the seizure of the Crimean Peninsula and ended eleven years later. Russian internet commentators admit that the war in Ukraine is lost and want Putin held accountable for the heavy cost in men, money and prestige. Ukraine will be demanding prosecutions for war crimes and compensation from Russia for damages and numerous atrocities. The first major war in Europe since 1945 ends with murmurs and recriminations over how it happened and if it could happen again.