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Scenarios for a communist Chinese invasion of Taiwan primarily focus on the Taiwan Strait and China’s Fujian province. That makes sense. Crossing the Strait from a point in Fujian to Taiwan’s shoreline is one of the shortest routes, either by sea or by air (from 165 to 220 kilometers in a straight line). Recently, British and American sources noted that China has built a new helicopter base in Fujian province.

Beijing has also expanded two very large airports near the cities of Xiamen and Fuzhou. The expanded Xiamen airport is the Xiang’an International Airport. Its runways extend to a small island just five kilometers from Taiwan’s Kinmen (Quemoy) Island. In 1949, Kinmen was the scene of fierce fighting between Chinese Nationalist and Chinese Communist forces as the Nationalists retreated to Taiwan. For the next decade, Kinmen was routinely shelled and occasionally attacked by Red Chinese forces. The island still has huge fortifications, but for the most part, they are unmanned and are something of a tourist attraction. The place is now regarded as indefensible. A token Taiwanese contingent remains on Kinmen. The island serves as a Taiwanese observation and intelligence post and a tripwire, should Beijing attack it before attacking the main island.

Fuzhou’s Changle International Airport is now almost twice the size it was in 2014. It’s now classified as a “mega-airport.” It was not enlarged because of increased civilian air traffic. The airport is very close to the sea. Chinese construction companies had to dredge and fill the area to expand the size of the facility. Fuzhou is also 180 kilometers from Taipei, Taiwan’s capital. International airports? Beijing’s narrative warfare. Changle and Xiang’an International are now military lily pads for large-scale air and drone attacks and airborne and air resupply operations against Taiwan.

U.S. sources note other activity that certainly looks like preparation for an attack. Beijing has begun improving its navy base in the city of Wenzhou in Zhejiang province. It is on the coast north of Fujian province. The port is well located. It can support an amphibious assault on Taiwan, particularly Taiwan’s northern coast, the city of Taipei, and conceivably an attack on Taiwan’s eastern coast. It is also well positioned to support operations against a chain of islets both China and Japan claim—the disputed Diaoyu (Chinese name) and Senkaku (Japanese name) islets. (Taiwan also claims them.) The islets are about 170 kilometers from Taipei and 170 kilometers from Japan’s Ryukyu archipelago. A new pier in Wenzhou’s Yueqing Bay is almost two kilometers long—a dock big enough to handle a convoy of roll-on, roll-off assault ships. It is definitely big enough to handle China’s new 41,000-ton Type 076 LHD amphibious assault ships. The Type 076 is a drone carrier. It is also an amphibious assault ship that carries 1,200 combat troops and several dozen trucks and combat vehicles.

Recently, a collection of approximately 20 Chinese naval vessels tied up beside the new pier. The ship types are a military planner’s list for an amphibious assault: LST-type tank transports, assorted landing craft (including ship-to-shore personnel and equipment landing craft), and several small tankers.

Is an invasion imminent? Taiwan is a tough nut to crack. The coastal preparations send the message that Beijing is preparing the battlefield. It is acquiring the naval, air, missile, and amphibious forces and is preparing its coastal assets to support a cross-Strait attack. Beijing would prefer to have such overwhelming deployable combat power that the Taiwanese conclude they cannot stop an invasion—that is, there is no way to successfully defend their island. So Taiwan submits. Very Sun Tzu. (AB)